| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALAB | 7 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
| UAB | 10 | 7 | 21 | 14 | 52 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ALAB ahead, below = UAB ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
UAB up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Alabama State 42, UAB 52.
No — the model picked ALAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ALAB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Andrew Body pass complete to Jalen Jones for 69 yds for a TD (Andrew Abu-Akel KICK)
Andrew Body pass complete to Ajai Harrell for 31 yds for a TD (Andrew Abu-Akel KICK)
Andrew Body run for 60 yds for a TD (Andrew Abu-Akel KICK)
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