Our gradient-boosted model (Elo + opponent-adjusted EPA + talent + market signal, walk-forward validated on 2019-2024) flags games where its projection diverges from the market line. The honest reality: the edge is small and concentrated in soft markets — not a license to print money. We judge ourselves by Closing Line Value, not hot streaks.
The honest verdict: With a pre-registered threshold, no closing-line leakage, and bets graded at the realizable opening price, the model shows NO statistically significant ATS edge (~50-51.5%). The only real signal is a small positive CLV — the close drifts toward our side slightly more than half the time. We retract the earlier 53.9% (it was test-set-tuned and used the closing line it bet into). This is the honest bar. The only real signal is the small positive CLV above. Even perfect knowledge of a starting QB being out yields ~50% ATS — the market prices injuries efficiently. Anything claiming 58%+ is leakage.
Bet the OPENING line where the model disagrees (pre-registered threshold).
Why this is real: Positive CLV on BOTH sides at a balanced home/away share = genuine selection, not a drift-ride. CLV (closing-line value) is the honest skill metric. After we bet the open, the close moves toward our side ~56% of the time (95% CI excludes 50%). This does NOT beat the closing spread head-to-head (~51.5% ATS, not significant) — an efficient-market result.
A joint score simulator now prices spread, push, total, moneyline, team totals and alternate lines off one coherent distribution. The headline: it lands on the key margins (3, 7, 10, 14) about as often as games actually do — where our old single-Normal model under-counted them ~3×, mispricing pushes, key-number teasers and alternate lines.
| Final margin lands on | Old model | New simulator | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| ±3 | 3.76% | 9.64% | 10.46% |
| ±7 | 3.59% | 8.82% | 8.57% |
| ±10 | 3.39% | 4.67% | 4.82% |
| ±14 | 3.04% | 4.6% | 4.43% |
This is calibration/correctness — it makes our push, teaser and alternate-line numbers trustworthy. It is not an ATS edge (the simulator is spread-neutral by construction).
| Game | Pick | Model | Market | Edge | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State @ Tennessee | Kent State +48.8 | -39.5 | -48.8 | 9.4 | 0-71 | L |
| Kent State @ Miami (OH) | Kent State +30.7 | -22 | -30.7 | 8.7 | 7-34 | W |
| Washington State @ San Diego State | San Diego State +17.2 | +8.9 | +17.2 | 8.3 | 29-26 | W |
| Notre Dame @ Georgia | Georgia +1.2 | -7 | +1.2 | 8.2 | 23-10 | L |
| Ohio State @ Oregon | Oregon +2.5 | -5.4 | +2.5 | 7.9 | 41-21 | L |
| Missouri @ Mississippi State | Missouri -9.5 | +16.8 | +9.5 | 7.3 | 39-20 | W |
| South Alabama @ LSU | South Alabama +20.8 | -13.6 | -20.8 | 7.3 | 10-42 | L |
| Texas State @ UL Monroe | Texas State -9.5 | +16.6 | +9.5 | 7.1 | 38-17 | W |
| Fresno State @ New Mexico | Fresno State -12.3 | +18.9 | +12.3 | 6.6 | 38-21 | W |
| Tulsa @ Temple | Tulsa +3.0 | +3.5 | -3 | 6.5 | 10-20 | L |
| Liberty @ Middle Tennessee | Liberty -12.7 | +19 | +12.7 | 6.3 | 37-17 | W |
| Marshall @ Virginia Tech | Marshall +20.7 | -14.3 | -20.7 | 6.3 | 14-31 | W |
| Buffalo @ Liberty | Liberty +4.0 | -2.2 | +4 | 6.2 | 26-7 | L |
| UNLV @ Utah State | UNLV -18.7 | +24.9 | +18.7 | 6.2 | 50-34 | L |
| Tennessee @ Vanderbilt | Tennessee -9.8 | +16 | +9.8 | 6.2 | 36-23 | W |
| Rice @ Army | Army -7.3 | -13.4 | -7.3 | 6.1 | 14-37 | W |
| Akron @ Ohio State | Akron +49.5 | -43.6 | -49.5 | 5.9 | 6-52 | W |
| Michigan @ Ohio State | Michigan +20.0 | -14.2 | -20 | 5.8 | 13-10 | W |
| East Carolina @ North Texas | East Carolina +2.5 | +3.2 | -2.5 | 5.7 | 40-28 | W |
| Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati | Pittsburgh +0.5 | +5.1 | -0.5 | 5.6 | 28-27 | W |
| Game | Pick | Model | Edge | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy @ Army | OVER 39.2 | 66 | 26.9 | 31-13 (44) | W |
| Navy @ Air Force | OVER 37.2 | 59 | 21.8 | 34-7 (41) | W |
| Air Force @ Army | OVER 38.3 | 60.1 | 21.8 | 3-20 (23) | L |
| Troy @ Louisiana | OVER 51.5 | 72.8 | 21.3 | 30-51 (81) | W |
| Nevada @ Hawai'i | OVER 41.8 | 62.4 | 20.5 | 13-34 (47) | W |
| Army @ Notre Dame | OVER 44.5 | 64.6 | 20.1 | 14-49 (63) | W |
| Oregon State @ Nevada | OVER 46.5 | 66.1 | 19.6 | 37-42 (79) | W |
| Troy @ Iowa | OVER 39.2 | 57.6 | 18.5 | 21-38 (59) | W |
| Utah @ Utah State | OVER 44.3 | 62.5 | 18.2 | 38-21 (59) | W |
| North Texas @ UTSA | UNDER 72.3 | 54.2 | 18.1 | 27-48 (75) | L |
| Massachusetts @ Northern Illinois | OVER 40.8 | 56.9 | 16.1 | 20-34 (54) | W |
| Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green | OVER 38.3 | 54.3 | 15.9 | 28-12 (40) | W |
| Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green | OVER 46.5 | 61.8 | 15.3 | 17-7 (24) | L |
| Tulane @ Army | OVER 46.3 | 61.6 | 15.3 | 14-35 (49) | W |
| Air Force @ Wyoming | OVER 33.3 | 48.6 | 15.2 | 19-31 (50) | W |
Live in-season this page surfaces upcoming-game edges vs current odds; in the offseason it shows the model's verified out-of-sample track record. Backtested model estimates for informational purposes only. Edges are small and concentrated in soft markets. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.