Duke
ACC· Elo 1526
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELON | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| DUKE | 3 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 45 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ELON ahead, below = DUKE ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
DUKE up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Elon 17, Duke 45.
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had DUKE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 7 yards to the ELON 19 Jaquez Moore fumbled, recovered by ELON Dillon Pardue
TJ Thomas Jr. run for 44 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST down
Anderson Castle run for 63 yds to the ELON 8 for a 1ST down
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