FBC Mortgage StadiumClosing line: UCF -19 · JXST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| UCF | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 17 |
Team stats
JXSTthis game · better side highlightedUCF
322
Total yards
424157
Passing yards
314165
Rushing yards
11018
First downs
233-15 · 20%
Third down
7-15 · 47%Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UCF 1538
JXST 1650
Projected spread
UCF +2.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
56% to win
Market spread
UCF -19
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
21.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
44%
UCF · market 87%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCF Elo 1538, JXST Elo 1650) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCF +2.1 (44% to win) — 21.1 points of value on JXST versus the market line of -19.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UCF (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UCF 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UCF rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge JXST.
- UCF pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. JXST pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge JXST.
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. UCF pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge JXST.
Drive-by-drive
JXST 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →UCF 3/10 scoring drives
UCFPUNT13 pl, 32 yds· own 19Q1
JXSTPUNT11 pl, 37 yds· own 19Q1
UCFFUM6 pl, 48 yds· own 3Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
UCF win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. UCF?
Jacksonville State 10, UCF 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had JXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.