| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-OH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WIS | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WIS Elo 1536, M-OH Elo 1528) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS -2.7 (58% to win) — 15.3 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of -18.
WIS up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Miami (OH) 0, Wisconsin 17.
Yes — the model's pick (WIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Danny O'Neil pass intercepted, touchback.
Dequan Finn pass intercepted
Danny O'Neil run for 17 yds to the M-OH 36 for a 1ST down
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