TDECU StadiumClosing line: HOU -24 · HOU covered
Fri, Aug 29, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = STEP ahead, below = HOU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
HOU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Stephen F. Austin 0, Houston 27.
No — the model picked STEP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had STEP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Conner Weigman run for 27 yds to the SFA 39 for a 1ST down
Gavin Rutherford pass incomplete to Isaiah Davis Stephen F. Austin Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Isaiah Davis) to the HOU 49
Amare Thomas 20 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
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