| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 13 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 43 |
| UCLA | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCLA Elo 1492, UTAH Elo 1542) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -0.4 (51% to win) — 6.9 points of value on UCLA versus the market line of +6.5.
UTAH up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah 43, UCLA 10.
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UCLA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Devon Dampier 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
Wayshawn Parker 13 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis PAT failed)
Smith Snowden 8 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
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