| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 7 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
| USU | 10 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USU Elo 1408, UTEP Elo 1240) plus home-field advantage. That projects USU -9.1 (75% to win) — 4.6 points of value on USU versus the market line of -4.5.
USU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTEP 16, Utah State 28.
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Miles Davis 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
Broc Lane 52 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)
Kenny Odom 34 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Carlos Arrelola Kick)
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