Mercedes-Benz StadiumNeutral siteClosing line: SC -7.5 · SC covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
Team stats
VTthis game · better side highlightedSC
336
Total yards
334221
Passing yards
209115
Rushing yards
12519
First downs
168-18 · 44%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SC 1706
VT 1598
Projected spread
SC -4.3
neutral site
Model pick
SC
63% to win
Market spread
SC -7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
VT
3.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
63%
SC · market 73%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SC Elo 1706, VT Elo 1598) on a neutral field. That projects SC -4.3 (63% to win) — 3.2 points of value on VT versus the market line of -7.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SC (top)VT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SC 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. SC rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge VT.
- SC pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. VT pass defense (0.42 allowed) — edge VT.
- VT pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. SC pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge SC.
Drive-by-drive
VT 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →SC 4/10 scoring drives
SCTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
VTPUNT5 pl, 0 yds· own 2Q1
SCPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SC up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
57%
SC went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina?
Virginia Tech 11, South Carolina 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had SC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.