Wyoming
Mountain West· Elo 1367
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYO | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| AKR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AKR Elo 1245, WYO Elo 1367) plus home-field advantage. That projects AKR +2.5 (43% to win) — 3.5 points of value on AKR versus the market line of +6.
WYO up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wyoming 10, Akron 0.
Yes — the model's pick (WYO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WYO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ben Finley pass intercepted
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 49 yds to the AKR 18 for a 1ST down
Sam Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the AKR 10
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