Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WAKE Elo 1531, AKR Elo 1101) plus home-field advantage. That projects WAKE -20.9 (94% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: WAKE
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- WAKE rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. AKR rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge WAKE.
- AKR pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. WAKE pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge AKR.
- AKR rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. WAKE rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge AKR.
FAQ
Who will win Akron vs. Wake Forest?
Gridpex's model favors Wake Forest with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Akron vs. Wake Forest?
The model projects Wake Forest by 20.9.
What time is Akron vs. Wake Forest and what channel is it on?
Thu, Sep 3, 11:00 PM on ACC Network, at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Wake Forest at 94% to win, projecting Wake Forest by 20.9. I'm close to the market here. Who's got an angle the model's missing?