2026 class · The Scout

Projecting Ryder Lyons: what history says about BYU's 4★ quarterback

Our rating model puts Lyons's odds of becoming a real college contributor at 64%. Here's the comp set behind that number — and how he fits in BYU.

The Scout

Players & projections · Sun, Jun 28, 2026

2 min read

Ryder Lyons is a 4-star quarterback, the No. 38 recruit nationally committed to BYU out of Folsom (CA). Recruiting sites will tell you he's good. What they won't tell you is the part that matters: how often players who look like this on signing day actually become college contributors. We can — because we tracked a decade of them.

64%

Projected to contribute

our rating model

55%

Base rate, 4★ QB

all such recruits, 2010-21

0.982

Composite rating

4-star, the No. 38 recruit nationally

4/9

Player	Pos	Landed at	Outcome
Ari Patu	QB	Stanford	✓ contributor
Daniyel Ngata	RB	Arizona State	✓ contributor
Jake Browning	QB	Washington	✓ contributor
C.J. Hutton	WR	UC Davis	✓ contributor
Tyler Trosin	WR	Oregon State	—
Phillip Carter	WR	Duke	—

Projecting Ryder Lyons: what history says about BYU's 4★ quarterback

What the model says

The Folsom track record

The fit at BYU

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