Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UVA Elo 1637, NCSU Elo 1605) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -6.4 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: UVA · 11 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- NCSU pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. UVA pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- NCSU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. UVA rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- UVA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. NCSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UVA.
FAQ
Who will win NC State vs. Virginia?
Gridpex's model favors Virginia with a 68% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for NC State vs. Virginia?
The model projects Virginia by 6.4.
What time is NC State vs. Virginia and what channel is it on?
Sat, Aug 29, 7:30 PM on ESPN, at Scott Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Virginia at 68% to win, projecting Virginia by 6.4. That's 11 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?