Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OU 1810
UTEP 1135
Projected spread
OU -34.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
OU
99% to win
Market spread
OU -40.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UTEP
6.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
OU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (OU Elo 1810, UTEP Elo 1135) plus home-field advantage. That projects OU -34.2 (99% to win) — 6.3 points of value on UTEP versus the market line of -40.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUTEP 1% · OU 99%
Pick: OU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
UTEP2025 season · national rank shownOU
331.8113th
Total yards / game
354.593rd5.1114th
Yards / play
5.3Key matchups · Pro
- UTEP rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. OU rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge UTEP.
- UTEP pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. OU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge OU.
- OU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UTEP pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UTEP.
FAQ
Who will win UTEP vs. Oklahoma?
Gridpex's model favors Oklahoma with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTEP vs. Oklahoma?
The model projects Oklahoma by 34.2.
What time is UTEP vs. Oklahoma and what channel is it on?
Time TBD on SECN+, at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Oklahoma at 99% to win, projecting Oklahoma by 34.2.