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#26Duke Watson
Duke Watson is a Explosive Back for Louisville. Duke's 2024 season ranks in the 93th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 56 plays — a elite rate for the RB.
2024 Production
Rushing
597 Rush yards7 Rush TD67 Carries8.9 Yards/carry
Receiving
5 Receptions60 Rec yards1 Rec TD12.0 Yards/rec
Returns
3 Kick returns78 KR yards0 KR TD
Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers
Player type
Explosive Back
Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.
Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)93th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency53th %ile · average
Key findings
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.19 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Kentucky (SP+ 6).
NIL Market Tier· 2024
On3 valuation ↗Star
Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsAustin Peay | W62-0 | — | 6 | 86 | 14.3 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.97 |
| 2 | vsJacksonville State | W49-14 | -1.0 | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.65 |
| 4 | vsGeorgia Tech | W31-19 | 1.9 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.51 |
| 5 | @Notre Dame | L24-31 | 23.9 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.40 |
| 7 | @Virginia | W24-20 | -5.1 | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.16 |
| 8 | vsMiami | L45-52 | 21.6 | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.94 |
| 9 | @Boston College | W31-27 | 1.2 | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.19 |
| 10 | @Clemson | W33-21 | 13.3 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0.07 |
| 12 | @Stanford | L35-38 | -8.2 | 11 | 117 | 10.6 | 3 | — | — | — | 0.85 |
| 13 | vsPittsburgh | W37-9 | 4.9 | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0.46 |
| 14 | @Kentucky | W41-14 | 5.5 | 6 | 104 | 17.3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.19 |
| 1 | vsWashington | W35-34 | 3.1 | 10 | 83 | 8.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
Snap-share proxy
Overall
9.2%
Passing plays
1.3%
Rushing plays
17.6%
Standard downs
11.2%
Passing downs
4.4%
EPA by down type
- Standard downs
- 0.42
- Passing downs
- 0.56
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 1.17 / 0.37
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).