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Abilene Christian vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 12:00 AM
Chapman Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| TLSA | 7 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 35 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelABIL 88% · TLSA 12%
Market consensusABIL 35% · TLSA 65%
Pick: ABIL · 53 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
Drive-by-drive
ABIL 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →TLSA 6/11 scoring drives
ABILPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 30Q1
ABILDOWNS15 pl, 87 yds· own 10Q1
TLSATD14 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q1
ABILDOWNS7 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 1Q2
ABILPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 10Q2
TLSAFG7 pl, 41 yds· own 49Q2
ABILPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 30Q2
TLSAPUNT9 pl, 39 yds· own 23Q2
ABILEND2 pl, 7 yds· own 10Q2
TLSAFG11 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q3
ABILPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· opp 49Q3
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 6Q3
ABILPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· opp 40Q3
TLSATD8 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q3
ABILPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
TLSATD8 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3
ABILINT4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4
TLSATD3 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q4
ABILTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
TLSAEND12 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TLSA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
TLSA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Abilene Christian vs. Tulsa?
Abilene Christian 7, Tulsa 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ABIL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ABIL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.