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Alabama vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 7:30 PM
Doak Campbell Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| FSU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FSU 1408
ALA 1824
Projected spread
FSU +14.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
ALA
85% to win
Market spread
FSU +13.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
15%
FSU · market 19%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FSU Elo 1408, ALA Elo 1824) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU +14.2 (15% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FSU (top)ALA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FSU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ALA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedFSU
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.2743%
Success rate
46%1.27
Explosiveness
1.354.04
Pts / opportunity
3.9567%
Power success
75%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.1638%
Success rate allowed
42%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.1618%
Havoc rate
16%19%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- FSU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. ALA pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge FSU.
- FSU rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. ALA rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge FSU.
- ALA pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. FSU pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge ALA.
Drive-by-drive
ALA 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →FSU 5/10 scoring drives
ALATD17 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
FSUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ALAMISS9 pl, 40 yds· own 0Q1
FSUTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
ALAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 0Q2
FSUFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 21Q2
ALAPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 0Q2
FSUEND5 pl, 15 yds· own 20Q2
FSUPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 15Q3
ALADOWNS6 pl, 39 yds· own 29Q3
FSUTD2 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3
ALAFG12 pl, 53 yds· own 0Q3
FSUPUNT6 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q3
ALAFUM3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q3
ALADOWNS4 pl, 18 yds· opp 46Q3
FSUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 28Q3
ALATD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4
FSUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
ALADOWNS8 pl, 26 yds· own 0Q4
FSUEND9 pl, 16 yds· own 49Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
FSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Florida State?
Alabama 17, Florida State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ALA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ALA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.