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App State vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Fri, Aug 29, 11:00 PM
Bank of America StadiumNeutral site
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 0 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 34 |
| CLT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CLT 1254
APP 1428
Projected spread
CLT +7
neutral site
Model pick
APP
70% to win
Market spread
CLT +10.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
CLT
3.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
30%
CLT · market 31%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLT Elo 1254, APP Elo 1428) on a neutral field. That projects CLT +7 (30% to win) — 3.5 points of value on CLT versus the market line of +10.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelAPP 70% · CLT 30%
Market consensusAPP 69% · CLT 31%
Pick: APP
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
APP2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCLT
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
-0.0142%
Success rate
34%1.18
Explosiveness
1.283.50
Pts / opportunity
2.7369%
Power success
61%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.2645%
Success rate allowed
54%1.19
Explosiveness allowed
1.0917%
Havoc rate
11%18%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- CLT rush offense (-0.15 PPA) vs. APP rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge APP.
- CLT pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge APP.
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. CLT rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge CLT.
Drive-by-drive
APP 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →CLT 2/10 scoring drives
CLTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1
APPPUNT7 pl, 44 yds· own 10Q1
APPPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· midfieldQ1
CLTPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 6Q1
APPFUM8 pl, 22 yds· own 19Q1
CLTFG13 pl, 55 yds· own 20Q1
CLTPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 12Q2
APPTD9 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2
CLTPUNT8 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q2
APPTD14 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
CLTINT2 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q2
APPFG5 pl, -16 yds· opp 35Q2
APPFG10 pl, 58 yds· own 25Q3
CLTTD15 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
CLTPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
APPTD11 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3
CLTFUM4 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q3
APPPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 23Q3
APPTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
CLTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4
APPDOWNS8 pl, 42 yds· own 30Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
APP up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
APP went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Charlotte?
App State 34, Charlotte 11.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had APP pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.