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Ball State vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 4:00 PM
Ross-Ade Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PUR | 14 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PUR 1207
BALL 1224
Projected spread
PUR -1.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
PUR
55% to win
Market spread
PUR -16.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
BALL
14.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
55%
PUR · market 85%
Our model blends Elo ratings (PUR Elo 1207, BALL Elo 1224) plus home-field advantage. That projects PUR -1.7 (55% to win) — 14.8 points of value on BALL versus the market line of -16.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
PUR (top)BALL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PUR 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BALL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedPUR
Offense
-0.00
PPA / play
0.1133%
Success rate
43%1.31
Explosiveness
1.242.71
Pts / opportunity
3.0658%
Power success
56%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.2744%
Success rate allowed
48%1.26
Explosiveness allowed
1.2114%
Havoc rate
15%21%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- BALL pass offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. PUR pass defense (0.40 allowed) — edge PUR.
- PUR pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. BALL pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge BALL.
- BALL rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. PUR rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge PUR.
Drive-by-drive
BALL 0/9 scoring drives← own end zone →PUR 5/9 scoring drives
PURTD2 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
BALLPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q1
PURTD6 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
BALLPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 31Q1
PURPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 36Q1
BALLPUNT8 pl, 33 yds· own 12Q1
PURTD13 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q1
BALLPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
PURPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 35Q2
BALLDOWNS9 pl, 60 yds· own 4Q2
PURPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 36Q2
BALLEND1 pl, -3 yds· own 6Q2
BALLMISS13 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q3
PURTD7 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3
BALLPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3
PURFG13 pl, 61 yds· own 29Q4
BALLMISS8 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q4
PUREND10 pl, 53 yds· own 20Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
PUR up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
PUR went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Purdue?
Ball State 0, Purdue 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PUR) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had PUR pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.