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Boise State vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Thu, Aug 28, 9:30 PM
Raymond James Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| USF | 0 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USF 1456
BOIS 1676
Projected spread
USF +6.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
68% to win
Market spread
USF +6
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
32%
USF · market 30%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1456, BOIS Elo 1676) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF +6.4 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USF (top)BOIS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USF 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BOIS2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSF
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.3142%
Success rate
46%1.28
Explosiveness
1.333.66
Pts / opportunity
4.4579%
Power success
81%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.0736%
Success rate allowed
38%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.3217%
Havoc rate
16%19%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge USF.
- BOIS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. USF rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. USF pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge BOIS.
Drive-by-drive
BOIS 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →USF 6/12 scoring drives
BOISFUM10 pl, 41 yds· own 20Q1
USFPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 39Q1
BOISPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 27Q1
USFDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 29Q1
BOISTD9 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q1
USFFG10 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q1
BOISPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 16Q2
USFTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
BOISFUM6 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q2
USFPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 36Q2
BOISPUNT8 pl, 31 yds· own 23Q2
USFEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q2
USFPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3
BOISPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 10Q3
USFTD4 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q3
BOISDOWNS12 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q3
USFTD3 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3
BOISDOWNS5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
USFTD5 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q3
BOISFUM10 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q4
USFPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
BOISDOWNS7 pl, 32 yds· own 38Q4
USFFG5 pl, 56 yds· own 30Q4
BOISEND7 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USF up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
USF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. South Florida?
Boise State 7, South Florida 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BOIS pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.