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California vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 2:30 AM
Reser Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
| ORST | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORST 1406
CAL 1519
Projected spread
ORST +2.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
CAL
56% to win
Market spread
ORST +1
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
44%
ORST · market 34%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORST Elo 1406, CAL Elo 1519) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORST +2.1 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ORST (top)CAL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ORST 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
CAL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedORST
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.0541%
Success rate
42%1.25
Explosiveness
1.053.70
Pts / opportunity
2.8970%
Power success
77%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.1842%
Success rate allowed
38%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.4415%
Havoc rate
17%13%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- ORST rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. CAL rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CAL.
- CAL rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. ORST rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge ORST.
- CAL pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. ORST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ORST.
Drive-by-drive
CAL 5/10 scoring drives← own end zone →ORST 4/14 scoring drives
CALTD8 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
ORSTDOWNS3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
ORSTTD6 pl, 66 yds· opp 23Q1
ORSTDOWNS5 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
ORSTDOWNS6 pl, 0 yds· opp 38Q1
CALTD3 pl, 0 yds· opp 38Q1
ORSTPUNT5 pl, 4 yds· opp 30Q1
ORSTFG6 pl, 43 yds· own 22Q2
CALPUNT7 pl, 24 yds· own 26Q2
ORSTPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 10Q2
CALPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 37Q2
ORSTFUM6 pl, 37 yds· own 27Q2
CALEND5 pl, 34 yds· own 36Q2
ORSTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 23Q3
CALTD4 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q3
ORSTTD11 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3
CALPUNT7 pl, 14 yds· own 32Q3
ORSTINT6 pl, 22 yds· own 1Q3
CALTD1 pl, 2 yds· opp 2Q4
ORSTTD10 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4
CALPUNT4 pl, 30 yds· own 0Q4
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 12Q4
CALFG10 pl, 29 yds· opp 34Q4
ORSTEND1 pl, 10 yds· own 35Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CAL up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
95%
CAL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Oregon State?
California 34, Oregon State 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CAL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had CAL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.