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Colorado State vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 3:00 AM
Husky Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| WASH | 7 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 38 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WASH 1585
CSU 1382
Projected spread
WASH -10.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
WASH
78% to win
Market spread
WASH -22
sportsbook line
Model edge
CSU
11.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
WASH · market 91%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WASH Elo 1585, CSU Elo 1382) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH -10.5 (78% to win) — 11.5 points of value on CSU versus the market line of -22.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WASH (top)CSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WASH 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
CSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWASH
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.2940%
Success rate
49%1.21
Explosiveness
1.233.52
Pts / opportunity
4.5859%
Power success
77%Defense
0.24
PPA allowed / play
0.0845%
Success rate allowed
39%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.1813%
Havoc rate
15%15%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- CSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge CSU.
- WASH rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. CSU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge WASH.
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. WASH pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge WASH.
Drive-by-drive
CSU 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →WASH 6/11 scoring drives
CSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 28Q1
WASHTD6 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
CSUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WASHPUNT10 pl, 28 yds· own 36Q1
CSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q1
WASHTD7 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2
CSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· opp 47Q2
WASHPUNT8 pl, 49 yds· own 1Q2
CSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 8Q2
WASHFUM6 pl, 25 yds· own 41Q2
CSUTD9 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2
WASHEND1 pl, 6 yds· own 37Q2
WASHTD7 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3
CSUTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
WASHTD9 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3
CSUINT3 pl, 6 yds· own 43Q3
WASHFG11 pl, 56 yds· own 38Q3
CSUDOWNS10 pl, 25 yds· own 27Q4
WASHTD5 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q4
CSUDOWNS10 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q4
WASHEND6 pl, 8 yds· opp 41Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WASH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
WASH went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Washington?
Colorado State 21, Washington 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WASH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.