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Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 4:00 PM
SECU Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| MD | 7 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 39 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MD 1438
FAU 1311
Projected spread
MD -7.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
MD
71% to win
Market spread
MD -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
FAU
6.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
71%
MD · market 83%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MD Elo 1438, FAU Elo 1311) plus home-field advantage. That projects MD -7.5 (71% to win) — 6.5 points of value on FAU versus the market line of -14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MD (top)FAU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MD 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
FAU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMD
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.1542%
Success rate
40%1.39
Explosiveness
1.323.49
Pts / opportunity
3.3977%
Power success
73%Defense
0.26
PPA allowed / play
0.1345%
Success rate allowed
44%1.30
Explosiveness allowed
1.1914%
Havoc rate
14%15%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- MD rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. MD pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. MD rush defense (0.13 allowed) — edge MD.
Drive-by-drive
FAU 2/17 scoring drives← own end zone →MD 6/15 scoring drives
FAUDOWNS12 pl, 73 yds· own 25Q1
MDPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 2Q1
FAUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 30Q1
MDPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 21Q1
FAUTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q1
FAUTD5 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
MDPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 14Q1
FAUDOWNS8 pl, 20 yds· own 35Q1
MDFG6 pl, 24 yds· own 45Q1
FAUINT4 pl, 12 yds· own 27Q2
MDPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· opp 49Q2
FAUSAF3 pl, -4 yds· own 4Q2
MDTD6 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2
FAUDOWNS5 pl, 20 yds· own 37Q2
MDTD7 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2
FAUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 21Q2
MDTD8 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2
FAUEND3 pl, 22 yds· own 36Q2
MDFG9 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q3
FAUDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· own 32Q3
MDFG5 pl, 16 yds· opp 40Q3
FAUINT7 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q3
MDPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 4Q3
FAUDOWNS8 pl, 2 yds· own 45Q3
MDDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 47Q3
FAUINT8 pl, 42 yds· own 40Q4
MDPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q4
FAUINT11 pl, 44 yds· own 15Q4
MDPUNT6 pl, 30 yds· own 8Q4
FAUINT5 pl, 16 yds· own 20Q4
MDDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 45Q4
FAUEND4 pl, 25 yds· own 39Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MD up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MD went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland?
Florida Atlantic 7, Maryland 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MD pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.