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Fresno State vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 23, 10:30 PM
Memorial Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| KU | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KU 1583
FRES 1490
Projected spread
KU -6.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
KU
67% to win
Market spread
KU -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
FRES
7.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
67%
KU · market 81%
Our model blends Elo ratings (KU Elo 1583, FRES Elo 1490) plus home-field advantage. That projects KU -6.1 (67% to win) — 7.9 points of value on FRES versus the market line of -14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KU (top)FRES (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
FRES2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedKU
Offense
0.11
PPA / play
0.2539%
Success rate
48%1.26
Explosiveness
1.183.29
Pts / opportunity
3.9473%
Power success
84%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.2539%
Success rate allowed
42%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.4317%
Havoc rate
18%20%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- KU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. FRES pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge KU.
- KU rush offense (0.22 PPA) vs. FRES rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge KU.
- FRES pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. KU pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge KU.
Drive-by-drive
FRES 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →KU 5/10 scoring drives
KUTD9 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q1
FRESTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
KUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
FRESPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
KUPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 19Q2
FRESPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q2
KUTD5 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q2
FRESINT5 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q2
KUFG8 pl, -2 yds· own 35Q2
FRESMISS9 pl, 38 yds· own 25Q2
FRESUncateg10 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q3
KUTD5 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q3
FRESINT4 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q3
KUDOWNS11 pl, 33 yds· opp 49Q3
FRESPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 16Q4
KUPUNT4 pl, 4 yds· own 31Q4
FRESPUNT8 pl, 13 yds· own 4Q4
KUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 30Q4
FRESDOWNS4 pl, 3 yds· own 11Q4
KUUncateg4 pl, 11 yds· opp 14Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
KU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
KU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Kansas?
Fresno State 7, Kansas 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had KU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.