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Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 1:30 AM
Valley Children's Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| FRES | 10 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FRES 1441
GASO 1457
Projected spread
FRES -1.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
FRES
55% to win
Market spread
FRES -1
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
55%
FRES · market 32%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1441, GASO Elo 1457) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES -1.8 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FRES (top)GASO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FRES 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
GASO2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedFRES
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.1145%
Success rate
39%1.23
Explosiveness
1.264.09
Pts / opportunity
3.2972%
Power success
73%Defense
0.28
PPA allowed / play
0.1149%
Success rate allowed
39%1.25
Explosiveness allowed
1.1815%
Havoc rate
17%16%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- FRES rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. FRES pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. FRES rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
GASO 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →FRES 7/11 scoring drives
FRESFG14 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q1
GASOPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
FRESTD3 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q1
GASOTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
FRESINT3 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q1
GASOTD9 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q1
FRESFUM5 pl, 82 yds· own 15Q2
GASOPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 3Q2
FRESINT3 pl, 12 yds· midfieldQ2
GASOINT6 pl, 30 yds· own 3Q2
FRESFG9 pl, 45 yds· own 47Q2
GASOPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 22Q3
FRESTD8 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q3
GASOPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 13Q3
FRESTD9 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q3
GASOPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 27Q3
FRESTD8 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q4
GASOPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
FRESTD5 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4
GASOPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 16Q4
FRESEND7 pl, 44 yds· own 23Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FRES up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
FRES went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State?
Georgia Southern 14, Fresno State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.