← All games
Georgia Tech vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 12:00 AM
Folsom Field
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GT | 0 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 27 |
| COLO | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
COLO 1634
GT 1536
Projected spread
COLO -6.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
COLO
68% to win
Market spread
COLO +3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
COLO
9.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
68%
COLO · market 38%
Our model blends Elo ratings (COLO Elo 1634, GT Elo 1536) plus home-field advantage. That projects COLO -6.3 (68% to win) — 9.8 points of value on COLO versus the market line of +3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
COLO (top)GT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: COLO 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
GT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCOLO
Offense
0.27
PPA / play
0.1249%
Success rate
35%1.16
Explosiveness
1.443.61
Pts / opportunity
3.4871%
Power success
67%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
0.2144%
Success rate allowed
43%1.25
Explosiveness allowed
1.3314%
Havoc rate
15%19%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- GT rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. COLO rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge GT.
- COLO pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. GT pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge GT.
- COLO rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. GT rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge GT.
Drive-by-drive
GT 5/10 scoring drives← own end zone →COLO 4/10 scoring drives
GTFUM2 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q1
COLOTD5 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q1
GTFUM4 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1
COLOPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 48Q1
GTINT6 pl, 38 yds· own 17Q1
COLOPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 34Q1
GTFG13 pl, 84 yds· own 2Q1
COLOPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q2
GTTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
COLOFG8 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q2
GTFG9 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q2
COLOPUNT4 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q3
GTPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 14Q3
COLOFG8 pl, 39 yds· midfieldQ3
GTTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
COLOTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
GTPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q4
COLOPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 11Q4
GTTD5 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4
COLOEND6 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
GT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
GT went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Colorado?
Georgia Tech 27, Colorado 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had COLO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.