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Hawai'i vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 2:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| ARIZ | 7 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARIZ 1371
HAW 1258
Projected spread
ARIZ -6.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
ARIZ
70% to win
Market spread
ARIZ -15
sportsbook line
Model edge
HAW
8.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
70%
ARIZ · market 82%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARIZ Elo 1371, HAW Elo 1258) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -6.9 (70% to win) — 8.1 points of value on HAW versus the market line of -15.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARIZ (top)HAW (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARIZ 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
HAW2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedARIZ
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.1941%
Success rate
43%1.34
Explosiveness
1.293.77
Pts / opportunity
3.6159%
Power success
74%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.1042%
Success rate allowed
39%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2016%
Havoc rate
20%16%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- HAW pass offense (0.31 PPA) vs. ARIZ pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge HAW.
- HAW rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. ARIZ rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge ARIZ.
- ARIZ rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. HAW rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge ARIZ.
Drive-by-drive
HAW 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARIZ 7/12 scoring drives
HAWPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
ARIZTD4 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q1
HAWFG15 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q1
ARIZPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
HAWFUM9 pl, 33 yds· own 22Q1
ARIZTD2 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
HAWPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2
ARIZFG12 pl, 48 yds· own 35Q2
HAWFG10 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q2
ARIZTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
HAWPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZPUNT7 pl, 18 yds· own 26Q3
HAWPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q3
ARIZPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 37Q3
HAWINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 18Q3
ARIZTD2 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q3
HAWDOWNS8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 45Q3
HAWFUM3 pl, 12 yds· own 12Q3
ARIZFG4 pl, -10 yds· opp 24Q3
HAWINT12 pl, 73 yds· own 25Q4
ARIZTD8 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q4
HAWINT7 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q4
ARIZEND4 pl, 31 yds· own 34Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARIZ up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ARIZ went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Arizona?
Hawai'i 6, Arizona 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ARIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.