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Iowa State vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 23, 4:00 PM
Aviva StadiumNeutral siteConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
| KSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KSU 1669
ISU 1616
Projected spread
KSU -2.1
neutral site
Model pick
KSU
56% to win
Market spread
KSU -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
56%
KSU · market 59%
Our model blends Elo ratings (KSU Elo 1669, ISU Elo 1616) on a neutral field. That projects KSU -2.1 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KSU (top)ISU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KSU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ISU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedKSU
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.2045%
Success rate
41%1.21
Explosiveness
1.393.54
Pts / opportunity
4.1569%
Power success
67%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.1339%
Success rate allowed
39%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.3317%
Havoc rate
17%21%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- KSU rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. ISU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge KSU.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. KSU pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ISU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. KSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge ISU.
Drive-by-drive
ISU 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →KSU 3/11 scoring drives
ISUFUM6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
ISUFUM4 pl, 1 yds· opp 8Q1
KSUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 7Q1
ISUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 44Q1
KSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 16Q1
ISUTD4 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q1
KSUTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
ISUFUM3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q2
KSUDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 16Q2
ISUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 7Q2
KSUFUM5 pl, 38 yds· own 41Q2
ISUMISS12 pl, 48 yds· own 21Q2
KSUPUNT12 pl, 27 yds· own 31Q2
ISUEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 4Q2
KSUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 19Q3
ISUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 42Q3
KSUDOWNS9 pl, 51 yds· own 16Q3
ISUTD11 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3
KSUTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
ISUFG10 pl, 57 yds· own 27Q4
KSUDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 21Q4
ISUTD4 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q4
KSUTD1 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4
ISUEND12 pl, 60 yds· own 37Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ISU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
ISU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Kansas State?
Iowa State 24, Kansas State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had KSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.