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LSU vs. Clemson: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| CLEM | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CLEM 1704
LSU 1718
Projected spread
CLEM -1.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
CLEM
55% to win
Market spread
CLEM -5
sportsbook line
Model edge
LSU
3.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
55%
CLEM · market 61%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLEM Elo 1704, LSU Elo 1718) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -1.8 (55% to win) — 3.2 points of value on LSU versus the market line of -5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CLEM (top)LSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CLEM 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
LSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCLEM
Offense
0.06
PPA / play
0.1939%
Success rate
42%1.22
Explosiveness
1.243.35
Pts / opportunity
3.8064%
Power success
72%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.1139%
Success rate allowed
37%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.3617%
Havoc rate
20%25%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- CLEM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. LSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge CLEM.
- CLEM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. LSU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge CLEM.
- LSU rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. CLEM rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge CLEM.
Drive-by-drive
LSU 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →CLEM 2/11 scoring drives
LSUPUNT6 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q1
CLEMPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 20Q1
LSUFUM2 pl, 11 yds· own 37Q1
CLEMFG4 pl, 0 yds· opp 24Q1
LSUPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q1
CLEMPUNT8 pl, 41 yds· own 15Q1
LSUFG8 pl, 49 yds· own 16Q1
CLEMTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
LSUFUM12 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q2
CLEMEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 13Q2
CLEMMISS8 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q3
LSUTD8 pl, 69 yds· own 30Q3
CLEMINT2 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3
LSUMISS8 pl, 25 yds· own 46Q3
CLEMPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 29Q3
LSUTD11 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3
CLEMDOWNS8 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q4
LSUPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 33Q4
CLEMPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q4
LSUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 18Q4
CLEMDOWNS7 pl, 42 yds· own 43Q4
LSUEND2 pl, -2 yds· own 15Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
CLEM win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Clemson?
LSU 17, Clemson 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had CLEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.