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New Mexico vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 11:30 PM
Michigan Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| MICH | 14 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MICH 1772
UNM 1331
Projected spread
MICH -20
incl. home edge
Model pick
MICH
93% to win
Market spread
MICH -35
sportsbook line
Model edge
UNM
15.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
93%
MICH · market 97%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MICH Elo 1772, UNM Elo 1331) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -20 (93% to win) — 15.0 points of value on UNM versus the market line of -35.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MICH (top)UNM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MICH 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UNM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMICH
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.1942%
Success rate
44%1.26
Explosiveness
1.173.96
Pts / opportunity
3.6475%
Power success
77%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.1240%
Success rate allowed
42%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.1317%
Havoc rate
17%23%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. UNM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge MICH.
- UNM rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. MICH rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge UNM.
- UNM pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge UNM.
Drive-by-drive
UNM 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MICH 6/11 scoring drives
MICHTD6 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
UNMPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 18Q1
MICHTD13 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
UNMPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 13Q1
MICHPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 23Q1
UNMPUNT7 pl, 25 yds· own 20Q1
MICHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 29Q2
UNMINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q2
MICHFG5 pl, 14 yds· opp 17Q2
UNMTD12 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q2
UNMFG4 pl, 2 yds· opp 29Q2
MICHTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
UNMEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 11Q2
UNMPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3
MICHFG9 pl, 73 yds· own 6Q3
UNMTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MICHPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 22Q3
UNMINT4 pl, 1 yds· own 41Q3
MICHTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
UNMINT8 pl, 58 yds· own 25Q4
MICHPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 3Q4
UNMDOWNS4 pl, -1 yds· own 44Q4
MICHDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 43Q4
UNMEND11 pl, 46 yds· own 38Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MICH up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
MICH went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Michigan?
New Mexico 17, Michigan 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MICH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.