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Northwestern vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 4:00 PM
Yulman Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| TULN | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 23 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TULN 1616
NU 1431
Projected spread
TULN -9.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
TULN
77% to win
Market spread
TULN -6
sportsbook line
Model edge
TULN
3.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
77%
TULN · market 66%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1616, NU Elo 1431) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN -9.8 (77% to win) — 3.8 points of value on TULN versus the market line of -6.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TULN (top)NU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TULN 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTULN
Offense
0.15
PPA / play
0.2243%
Success rate
46%1.18
Explosiveness
1.193.21
Pts / opportunity
3.8876%
Power success
78%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.1545%
Success rate allowed
45%1.15
Explosiveness allowed
1.1715%
Havoc rate
17%15%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- TULN pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. NU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge TULN.
- TULN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. NU rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NU.
- NU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. TULN rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge NU.
Drive-by-drive
NU 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →TULN 5/12 scoring drives
NUINT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
TULNTD8 pl, 51 yds· own 48Q1
NUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
TULNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 26Q1
NUFG13 pl, 69 yds· own 28Q1
TULNFG11 pl, 77 yds· own 19Q1
NUINT2 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
TULNFG11 pl, 18 yds· opp 41Q2
NUINT7 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q2
TULNTD2 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2
NUPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 30Q2
TULNEND5 pl, 60 yds· own 24Q2
TULNFG16 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q3
NUDOWNS5 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q3
TULNPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 47Q3
NUDOWNS7 pl, 45 yds· own 20Q3
TULNPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 35Q3
NUINT9 pl, 53 yds· own 14Q3
TULNPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 2Q4
NUPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 20Q4
TULNPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 48Q4
NUFUM9 pl, 41 yds· own 1Q4
TULNEND4 pl, 15 yds· opp 42Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TULN up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
98%
TULN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Tulane?
Northwestern 3, Tulane 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.