← All games
Ohio vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Thu, Aug 28, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 31 |
| RUTG | 7 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
RUTG 1522
OHIO 1621
Projected spread
RUTG +1.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
OHIO
55% to win
Market spread
RUTG -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
OHIO
15.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
RUTG · market 81%
Our model blends Elo ratings (RUTG Elo 1522, OHIO Elo 1621) plus home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +1.6 (45% to win) — 15.6 points of value on OHIO versus the market line of -14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
RUTG (top)OHIO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: RUTG 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
OHIO2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedRUTG
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.2145%
Success rate
47%1.23
Explosiveness
1.223.55
Pts / opportunity
3.3879%
Power success
75%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.3141%
Success rate allowed
47%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.3315%
Havoc rate
12%19%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- OHIO pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. RUTG pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge RUTG.
- RUTG pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. OHIO pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge RUTG.
- OHIO rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. RUTG rush defense (0.26 allowed) — edge RUTG.
Drive-by-drive
OHIO 5/8 scoring drives← own end zone →RUTG 3/12 scoring drives
RUTGTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
RUTGTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
OHIOTD10 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
RUTGFG10 pl, 53 yds· own 42Q1
RUTGFG10 pl, 53 yds· own 42Q1
OHIOPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
RUTGTD1 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q2
OHIOTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
RUTGTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
RUTGTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
OHIOTD4 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2
OHIOFG13 pl, 82 yds· own 5Q2
RUTGEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 18Q2
RUTGEND1 pl, -5 yds· own 18Q2
OHIOTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
RUTGFG14 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q3
RUTGPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 20Q3
OHIOTD7 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q3
OHIOPUNT7 pl, 29 yds· own 23Q4
RUTGUncateg13 pl, 55 yds· own 14Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
RUTG win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Rutgers?
Ohio 31, Rutgers 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had OHIO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.