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Rice vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICE | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| UL | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UL 1474
RICE 1326
Projected spread
UL -8.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
UL
73% to win
Market spread
UL -11
sportsbook line
Model edge
RICE
2.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
UL · market 81%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UL Elo 1474, RICE Elo 1326) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL -8.3 (73% to win) — 2.7 points of value on RICE versus the market line of -11.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UL (top)RICE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UL 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
RICE2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUL
Offense
0.06
PPA / play
0.1237%
Success rate
39%1.17
Explosiveness
1.213.21
Pts / opportunity
3.4573%
Power success
71%Defense
0.25
PPA allowed / play
0.1940%
Success rate allowed
46%1.55
Explosiveness allowed
1.2014%
Havoc rate
14%17%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- UL pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. RICE pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge RICE.
- RICE pass offense (0.12 PPA) vs. UL pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge UL.
- RICE rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UL.
Drive-by-drive
RICE 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →UL 3/10 scoring drives
RICEPUNT7 pl, 8 yds· own 13Q1
ULFG10 pl, 26 yds· own 44Q1
RICETD13 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
ULINT2 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
RICEPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 22Q2
ULFUM7 pl, 46 yds· own 20Q2
RICETD8 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2
ULFG10 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q2
RICEEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
ULPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3
RICEPUNT9 pl, 50 yds· own 9Q3
ULTD11 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q3
RICEPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3
ULPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 8Q4
RICEPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 44Q4
ULPUNT3 pl, 11 yds· own 9Q4
RICEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 39Q4
ULDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 26Q4
RICEDOWNS9 pl, 30 yds· opp 35Q4
ULDOWNS7 pl, 30 yds· own 5Q4
RICEEND2 pl, -3 yds· opp 35Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
RICE up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
57%
RICE went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. Louisiana?
Rice 14, Louisiana 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had UL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.