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Stanford vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 23, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| HAW | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
HAW 1257
STAN 1283
Projected spread
HAW -1.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
HAW
54% to win
Market spread
HAW -1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
54%
HAW · market 49%
Our model blends Elo ratings (HAW Elo 1257, STAN Elo 1283) plus home-field advantage. That projects HAW -1.4 (54% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
HAW (top)STAN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: HAW 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
STAN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedHAW
Offense
0.06
PPA / play
0.1836%
Success rate
41%1.20
Explosiveness
1.343.02
Pts / opportunity
3.7782%
Power success
59%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.1742%
Success rate allowed
42%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2915%
Havoc rate
16%17%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- STAN rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. HAW rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge HAW.
- STAN pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. HAW pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge HAW.
- HAW pass offense (0.31 PPA) vs. STAN pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge STAN.
Drive-by-drive
STAN 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →HAW 6/11 scoring drives
STANFG16 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q1
HAWTD1 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q1
HAWPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
STANPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 20Q1
HAWTD6 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
STANMISS13 pl, 64 yds· own 20Q1
HAWDOWNS7 pl, 45 yds· own 20Q2
STANFG11 pl, 37 yds· own 35Q2
HAWTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
STANEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 21Q2
STANTD20 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q3
HAWPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 26Q3
STANPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 15Q3
HAWFG11 pl, 36 yds· own 42Q3
STANPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 27Q3
HAWPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 36Q3
HAWPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4
STANINT5 pl, 61 yds· own 15Q4
HAWFG10 pl, 50 yds· own 31Q4
STANPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4
HAWFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 28Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
HAW up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
HAW went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. Hawai'i?
Stanford 20, Hawai'i 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HAW) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had HAW pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.