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Stony Brook vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Fri, Aug 29, 2:00 AM
Snapdragon Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STON | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SDSU | 14 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSTON 64% · SDSU 36%
Market consensusSTON 12% · SDSU 88%
Pick: STON · 52 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
Drive-by-drive
STON 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 6/12 scoring drives
SDSUTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
STONPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUTD13 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
STONPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 37Q2
STONPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q2
SDSUFG5 pl, 45 yds· own 31Q2
STONPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2
SDSUFG13 pl, 61 yds· own 22Q2
STONEND3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q2
STONPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 8Q3
SDSUPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 31Q3
STONPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q3
SDSUDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 38Q3
STONPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 33Q3
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 27Q3
STONPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 20Q3
SDSUTD5 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q3
STONDOWNS6 pl, 23 yds· own 38Q3
SDSUTD9 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4
STONPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
SDSUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 29Q4
STONPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 17Q4
SDSUTD8 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4
STONEND3 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
SDSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Stony Brook vs. San Diego State?
Stony Brook 0, San Diego State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked STON, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had STON pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.