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Toledo vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 4:45 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 16 |
| UK | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UK 1498
TOL 1454
Projected spread
UK -4.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
UK
62% to win
Market spread
UK -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
TOL
5.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
62%
UK · market 75%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UK Elo 1498, TOL Elo 1454) plus home-field advantage. That projects UK -4.2 (62% to win) — 5.8 points of value on TOL versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UK (top)TOL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UK 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TOL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUK
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.0844%
Success rate
42%1.23
Explosiveness
1.153.86
Pts / opportunity
3.8478%
Power success
70%Defense
-0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.1833%
Success rate allowed
44%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.2320%
Havoc rate
15%22%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- UK pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge UK.
- UK rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. TOL rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge UK.
- TOL rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. UK rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge TOL.
Drive-by-drive
TOL 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →UK 5/13 scoring drives
UKPUNT7 pl, 14 yds· own 28Q1
TOLINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 12Q1
UKTD7 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q1
TOLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
UKINT3 pl, 7 yds· own 43Q1
TOLDOWNS11 pl, 51 yds· own 46Q1
UKSAF1 pl, -3 yds· own 3Q2
TOLPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 23Q2
UKFUM2 pl, 26 yds· own 47Q2
TOLDOWNS7 pl, 23 yds· own 27Q2
UKFG10 pl, 23 yds· midfieldQ2
TOLPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2
UKPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 24Q2
TOLEND1 pl, 1 yds· own 8Q2
TOLPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3
UKPUNT8 pl, 49 yds· own 12Q3
TOLPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 7Q3
UKPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 38Q3
TOLPUNT4 pl, 26 yds· own 20Q3
UKTD12 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
TOLTD7 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q4
UKTD1 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q4
TOLDOWNS11 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q4
UKPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 44Q4
TOLTD7 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q4
UKEND4 pl, 11 yds· opp 43Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UK up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
UK went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Kentucky?
Toledo 16, Kentucky 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UK pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.