← All games
UTSA vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| TA&M | 7 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TA&M 1674
UTSA 1529
Projected spread
TA&M -8.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
TA&M
73% to win
Market spread
TA&M -23
sportsbook line
Model edge
UTSA
14.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
TA&M · market 92%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TA&M Elo 1674, UTSA Elo 1529) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -8.2 (73% to win) — 14.8 points of value on UTSA versus the market line of -23.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TA&M (top)UTSA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TA&M 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UTSA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTA&M
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.2445%
Success rate
46%1.34
Explosiveness
1.234.23
Pts / opportunity
4.1473%
Power success
75%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.1340%
Success rate allowed
34%1.38
Explosiveness allowed
1.4519%
Havoc rate
21%18%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- UTSA pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. TA&M pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge UTSA.
- TA&M pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. UTSA pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge TA&M.
- TA&M rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. UTSA rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge TA&M.
Drive-by-drive
UTSA 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TA&M 5/13 scoring drives
TA&MPUNT4 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
UTSAPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 35Q1
TA&MPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q1
UTSATD5 pl, 18 yds· own 20Q1
UTSAFG12 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q1
TA&MTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1
UTSATD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
TA&MTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2
UTSAMISS11 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q2
TA&MPUNT8 pl, 27 yds· own 26Q2
UTSATD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
TA&MPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
UTSAPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 22Q3
TA&MTD9 pl, 78 yds· own 15Q3
UTSAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3
TA&MTD5 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3
UTSAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3
TA&MPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 34Q3
TA&MPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 33Q4
UTSAPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 17Q4
TA&MTD3 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q4
UTSAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 24Q4
TA&MPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 29Q4
UTSATD9 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q4
TA&MEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TA&M up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
TA&M went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. Texas A&M?
UTSA 24, Texas A&M 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.