Fri, Sep 4, 12:00 AM
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (GT Elo 1595, COLO Elo 1344) plus home-field advantage. That projects GT -16.6 (89% to win) — 9.1 points of value on GT versus the market line of -7.5.
Pick: GT · 17 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors Georgia Tech with a 89% win probability.
The model projects Georgia Tech by 16.6.
Fri, Sep 4, 12:00 AM on ESPN, at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
I make this Georgia Tech at 89% to win, projecting Georgia Tech by 16.6. That's 17 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?