Sat, Aug 29, 9:30 PM
Pick: NDSU · 16 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
Gridpex's model favors North Dakota State with a 58% win probability.
The model projects North Dakota State by 2.8.
Sat, Aug 29, 9:30 PM on CBSSN, at Fargodome.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
I make this North Dakota State at 58% to win, projecting North Dakota State by 2.8. That's 16 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?