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New Mexico State vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Aug 29, 11:00 PM
Doak Campbell StadiumThe CW Network
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FSU 1556
NMSU 1172
Projected spread
FSU -21.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
FSU
95% to win
Market spread
FSU -30.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
NMSU
8.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
95%
FSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (FSU Elo 1556, NMSU Elo 1172) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU -21.8 (95% to win) — 8.7 points of value on NMSU versus the market line of -30.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelNMSU 5% · FSU 95%
Pick: FSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NMSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedFSU
Offense
0.05
PPA / play
0.2737%
Success rate
46%1.26
Explosiveness
1.353.21
Pts / opportunity
3.9569%
Power success
75%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.1642%
Success rate allowed
42%1.21
Explosiveness allowed
1.1616%
Havoc rate
16%20%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- FSU rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge FSU.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. FSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge FSU.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. FSU pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FSU.
FAQ
Who will win New Mexico State vs. Florida State?
Gridpex's model favors Florida State with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico State vs. Florida State?
The model projects Florida State by 21.8.
What time is New Mexico State vs. Florida State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Aug 29, 11:00 PM on The CW Network, at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Florida State at 95% to win, projecting Florida State by 21.8.