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Penn State vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap

Sat, Nov 23, 8:30 PM

Penn State logo
Penn State
Big Ten· Elo 1987
2625
Final
Minnesota logo
Minnesota
Big Ten· Elo 1590
Huntington Bank StadiumConference game
1234T
PSU0167326
MINN7123325
RecapNov 24

One Point, One Blocked Kick, And Penn State Survives Minneapolis

A November night in Minnesota came down to a single point Penn State stole when nobody was looking — and a goal-line stand the Gophers never got to make.

There are games you win with a haymaker and games you win by the width of a fingernail. Penn State left Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday night having won by exactly one point, and the longer you sit with it, the more you understand that the whole evening hinged on a single play most of the crowd had already stopped watching.

Penn State 26, Minnesota 25
Final
Huntington Bank Stadium
244 yds, 1 TD
Allar
Penn State passing
102 yds
Warren
Penn State receiving
175 yds, 1 TD
Brosmer
Minnesota passing

Rewind to the chaos at the end of the first half. Minnesota had just thrown the building into a frenzy — Max Brosmer finding Jameson Geers for 21 yards and a touchdown with barely a minute left, the Gophers suddenly ahead and alive. Penn State answered with the kind of hurried, desperate drive that usually ends in a field goal or a sigh. Instead Drew Allar tucked it and ran it in himself from four yards out with 19 seconds on the clock. And then the night turned strange.

Ryan Barker's extra point — the most automatic play in football — got blocked. For half a second it looked like a gift handed back to Minnesota. But Penn State's Ethan Robinson scooped up the wreckage and carried it the other way for a defensive two-point conversion. Two points off a blocked kick. If you are scoring at home, that is the entire final margin, banked in the half's dying breath, in a sequence nobody could have drawn up.

The defense kept handing it back

QuarterPlayScore
Q1Marcus Major 20-yd run (Kesich kick)MINN 7-0
Q2Kesich 48-yd FGMINN 10-0
Q2Allar 45-yd TD pass to Omari Evans (Barker kick)MINN 10-7
Q2Barker 45-yd FGMINN 10-10
Q2Brosmer 21-yd TD pass to Jameson Geers (Kesich kick)MINN 17-10
Q2Allar 4-yd run (PAT blocked)MINN 17-16
Q2Ethan Robinson defensive 2-pt conversionPSU 18-17
Q3Kesich 42-yd FGMINN 20-18
Q3Singleton 12-yd run (Barker kick)PSU 25-20
Q4Barker 32-yd FGPSU 26-20
Q4Kesich 26-yd FGPSU 26-25
How it was scored

All night, when Penn State needed a stop, a Nittany Lion put his hands on the football. In the second quarter, Dominic DeLuca jumped a Brosmer throw and returned it 29 yards to the Minnesota 23, snuffing out a drive and stealing the field. To open the fourth, Brosmer dropped back, lost nine yards and the ball both, and Zakee Wheatley fell on the fumble at the Minnesota 41. Twice the Gophers had something building; twice they walked off with nothing but the sick feeling of giving it away.

Between the takeaways, this was a heavyweight clinch. Omari Evans had given Penn State its first real jolt with a 45-yard touchdown catch from Allar, and Nicholas Singleton bullied in from 12 in the third to push the lead. But Minnesota would not go away. Dragan Kesich, automatic from anywhere, kept the Gophers within a single possession with kicks of 48, 42 and finally 26 yards. Tyler Warren did Tyler Warren things — 102 yards' worth of chain-moving catches — and still the margin stayed a coin's edge.

The cruelest part for Minnesota came at the very end. Penn State, nursing its one point, got the ball to the 3-yard line — close enough to taste a backbreaking touchdown — with 27 seconds left. The Gophers burned a timeout. The Nittany Lions never needed the score; they had the lead and the clock, and they simply let the air out of the building one kneel-down's worth at a time. The goal-line stand Minnesota wanted to make never came, because Penn State refused to hand it the chance.

One point. A blocked kick that bounced the right way, a couple of giveaways the Gophers will see in their sleep, and a finish that asked Minnesota to win it and never quite let them try. Penn State survived. On nights like this, surviving is the whole art.

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)
MINN 1590
PSU 1987
Projected spread
MINN +13.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
84% to win
Market spread
MINN +11
sportsbook line
Model edge
PSU
2.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
16%
MINN · market 22%

Our model blends Elo ratings (MINN Elo 1590, PSU Elo 1987) plus home-field advantage. That projects MINN +13.5 (16% to win) 2.5 points of value on PSU versus the market line of +11.

Win Probability

Hover over the chart to see play details
MINN (top)PSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MINN 0%

Advanced Matchup — 2024

PSU2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedMINN

Offense

0.30
PPA / play
0.20
50%
Success rate
45%
1.19
Explosiveness
1.18
4.72
Pts / opportunity
4.35
74%
Power success
73%

Defense

0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.06
39%
Success rate allowed
38%
1.26
Explosiveness allowed
1.17
19%
Havoc rate
20%
27%
Stuff rate
18%

Key matchups · Pro

  • PSU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. MINN pass defense (0.12 allowed) — edge PSU.
  • PSU rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. MINN rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge PSU.
  • MINN rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge MINN.

Drive-by-drive

PSU 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MINN 5/11 scoring drives
PSUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
MINNTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
PSUPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
MINNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 11Q1
PSUDOWNS5 pl, 5 yds· midfieldQ1
MINNFG7 pl, 25 yds· own 45Q1
PSUTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
MINNINT4 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q2
PSUFG4 pl, -5 yds· opp 23Q2
MINNPUNT8 pl, 23 yds· own 26Q2
PSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 3Q2
MINNTD1 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q2
PSUTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
MINNEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
MINNFG9 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q3
PSUPUNT7 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q3
MINNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 22Q3
PSUTD5 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
MINNFUM6 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q3
PSUFG7 pl, 26 yds· opp 41Q4
MINNFG11 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q4
PSUEND12 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q4

Comparable Situations — historical outcomes

PSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,672 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

53%
PSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

FAQ

What was the final score of Penn State vs. Minnesota?

Penn State 26, Minnesota 25.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.

🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take

Called it — I had PSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.

Game thread

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Model estimates for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Data: CollegeFootballData.