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Massachusetts vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 5, 4:00 PM
Huskie Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 7 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| NIU | 7 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NIU 1455
MASS 1067
Projected spread
NIU -17.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
NIU
91% to win
Market spread
NIU -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
3.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
91%
NIU · market 84%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NIU Elo 1455, MASS Elo 1067) plus home-field advantage. That projects NIU -17.9 (91% to win) — 3.9 points of value on NIU versus the market line of -14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NIU (top)MASS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NIU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
MASS2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedNIU
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.1641%
Success rate
42%1.27
Explosiveness
1.233.73
Pts / opportunity
3.3974%
Power success
72%Defense
0.26
PPA allowed / play
0.0646%
Success rate allowed
38%1.21
Explosiveness allowed
1.2014%
Havoc rate
18%12%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- MASS pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.03 allowed) — edge MASS.
- NIU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. MASS rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge MASS.
- MASS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge MASS.
Drive-by-drive
MASS 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →NIU 5/11 scoring drives
MASSFUM2 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1
NIUTD1 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q1
MASSTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NIUINT4 pl, 32 yds· own 35Q1
MASSPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q1
NIUPUNT8 pl, 32 yds· own 29Q1
MASSFG12 pl, 71 yds· own 20Q1
NIUDOWNS6 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q2
MASSPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 40Q2
NIUFUM8 pl, 35 yds· own 20Q2
MASSFG10 pl, 46 yds· own 45Q2
NIUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
NIUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MASSDOWNS11 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q3
NIUTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MASSDOWNS6 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q4
NIUTD9 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q4
MASSTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
NIUTD3 pl, 4 yds· opp 4Q4
MASSDOWNS7 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q4
NIUEND4 pl, 10 yds· opp 37Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
NIU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Northern Illinois?
Massachusetts 20, Northern Illinois 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NIU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NIU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.