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Colorado vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap

Sat, Nov 23, 8:30 PM

Colorado logo
Colorado
Big 12· Elo 1684
2137
Final
Kansas logo
Kansas
Big 12· Elo 1671
GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumNeutral siteConference game
1234T
COLO0147021
KU10137737
RecapNov 24

Neal Runs Wild as Kansas Buries Colorado at Arrowhead

Colorado had the brightest stars at Arrowhead. Kansas had Devin Neal, and a back who simply would not stop running.

There is a kind of football game that gets decided by who has the best player on the field, and there is another kind that gets decided by who has the most willing one. Saturday at Arrowhead, Colorado brought the first kind of star and Kansas brought the second, and by the time the dust settled it was the Jayhawks walking off the field at GEHA Field with a 37-21 win that never felt as close as the scoreboard made it look for a while.

Kansas 37, Colorado 21
Final
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
207 rush yds, 3 TD
Devin Neal
+ a 51-yard receiving TD
266 pass yds, 3 TD
Shedeur Sanders
two to Travis Hunter
Colorado 2, points 0
4th-Q red-zone trips
both drives stalled inside the 20
QuarterScore playTally
Q1Daniels 51-yd TD to NealKU 7-0
Q1Allen 24-yd FGKU 10-0
Q2Neal 9-yd TD runKU 17-0
Q2Sanders 51-yd TD to HunterKU 17-7
Q2Allen 23-yd FGKU 20-7
Q2Sanders 19-yd TD to MillerKU 20-14
Q2Allen 25-yd FGKU 23-14
Q3Sanders 26-yd TD to HunterKU 23-21
Q3Neal 1-yd TD runKU 30-21
Q4Neal 2-yd TD runKU 37-21
How the scoring went
PlayerLine
Devin Neal (KU)207 rush yds, 3 rush TD; 80 rec yds, 1 rec TD
Jalon Daniels (KU)189 pass yds, 1 TD
Shedeur Sanders (CU)266 pass yds, 3 TD; 26 rush yds
Travis Hunter (CU)125 rec yds, 2 TD
Who did the damage

His name is Devin Neal, and the Buckeyes of Boulder will be seeing him in their sleep. The very first time Kansas had the ball, Jalon Daniels dropped back, found Neal leaking out of the backfield, and watched him run away from everybody for 51 yards and a touchdown. Eleven minutes into the game, the underdog led, and the tone was set.

What followed was a strange, dizzying second quarter where Colorado kept answering and Kansas kept refusing to let the answers matter. Neal pounded in a 9-yard score. Shedeur Sanders fired back, hitting Travis Hunter on a 51-yard catch-and-go that brought the visitors roaring back. But every time Colorado scored, Tabor Allen trotted out and chipped three more points off the lead — a 23-yarder, a 25-yarder at the gun. Sanders found Drelon Miller for 19 and a score, and still, somehow, Kansas went to the locker room ahead. Colorado was trading touchdowns for a deficit.

You could feel the math working against them, even if nobody in the stands would have called it that. Sanders was magnificent — 266 yards, three touchdowns, two of them to Hunter, the best player anyone in that building had ever watched. But great players make great plays, and great teams make great drives. Colorado lived on the highlight. Kansas just kept moving the chains and handing the ball to Neal.

The third quarter is where it tipped for good. Sanders hit Hunter again, this time from 26 out, and for one breath Colorado had life. Then Neal answered with a 1-yard plunge, and the bleeding wouldn't stop. He had already broken loose for 47 yards earlier, then 28 more, dragging the Colorado defense around the yard like a man who had decided the night belonged to him. By the time he punched in his third touchdown from two yards out early in the fourth, it was 37, and Arrowhead knew.

And then came the part that tells you everything. Down two scores, Colorado drove and drove — and got nothing. They reached the Kansas 10, and a holding flag snuffed it out. Late, they pushed inside the 20 again, and the drive died there too, a timeout the only thing left to call. Two trips into the shadow of the goal line in the fourth quarter, two empty-handed walks back. The stars kept making plays. The points stopped coming.

Sanders threw for 266 and three scores and lost by 16. Neal ran for 207, scored three times, and caught a fourth. That is the whole story. Colorado had the brightest lights; Kansas had the back who wouldn't go down, the offense that never stopped marching, and the patience to let a flashy favorite punch itself out. The trophy went home with the team nobody picked — and they earned every yard of it.

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)
KU 1671
COLO 1684
Projected spread
KU +0.5
neutral site
Model pick
COLO
52% to win
Market spread
KU +2
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
48%
KU · market 45%

Our model blends Elo ratings (KU Elo 1671, COLO Elo 1684) on a neutral field. That projects KU +0.5 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Win Probability

Hover over the chart to see play details
KU (top)COLO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KU 100%

Advanced Matchup — 2024

COLO2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedKU

Offense

0.24
PPA / play
0.32
44%
Success rate
48%
1.33
Explosiveness
1.29
4.34
Pts / opportunity
4.68
82%
Power success
83%

Defense

0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.23
38%
Success rate allowed
45%
1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.34
20%
Havoc rate
17%
18%
Stuff rate
14%

Key matchups · Pro

  • KU rush offense (0.33 PPA) vs. COLO rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge KU.
  • KU pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. COLO pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge KU.
  • COLO rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. KU rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge KU.

Drive-by-drive

COLO 3/8 scoring drives← own end zone →KU 7/8 scoring drives
KUTD6 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
COLOPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
KUFG13 pl, 61 yds· own 33Q1
COLODOWNS8 pl, 47 yds· own 14Q1
KUTD8 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2
COLOTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
KUFG8 pl, 69 yds· own 26Q2
COLOTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
KUFG12 pl, 73 yds· own 20Q2
COLOEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 14Q2
COLOTD6 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q3
KUTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
COLOPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 24Q3
KUTD14 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
COLODOWNS12 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q4
KUEND10 pl, 53 yds· own 29Q4

Comparable Situations — historical outcomes

KU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,694 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

86%
KU went on to win
A near-lock historically

FAQ

What was the final score of Colorado vs. Kansas?

Colorado 21, Kansas 37.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.

🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take

I had COLO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.

Game thread

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Model estimates for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Data: CollegeFootballData.