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Fresno State vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Sep 22, 12:30 AM
University Stadium (NM)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 8 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| UNM | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UNM 1196
FRES 1680
Projected spread
UNM +17
incl. home edge
Model pick
FRES
90% to win
Market spread
UNM +12.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
FRES
4.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
10%
UNM · market 19%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNM Elo 1196, FRES Elo 1680) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNM +17 (10% to win) — 4.5 points of value on FRES versus the market line of +12.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UNM (top)FRES (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UNM 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
FRES2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedUNM
Offense
0.11
PPA / play
0.3139%
Success rate
49%1.32
Explosiveness
1.243.68
Pts / opportunity
3.8369%
Power success
81%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.3440%
Success rate allowed
50%1.14
Explosiveness allowed
1.2714%
Havoc rate
14%18%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- FRES pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UNM pass defense (0.51 allowed) — edge UNM.
- UNM rush offense (0.37 PPA) vs. FRES rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge UNM.
- FRES rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. UNM rush defense (0.20 allowed) — edge UNM.
Drive-by-drive
FRES 7/11 scoring drives← own end zone →UNM 4/11 scoring drives
FRESPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
UNMFUM3 pl, 13 yds· own 26Q1
FRESTD10 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q1
UNMFG14 pl, 73 yds· own 24Q1
FRESTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
UNMPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q2
FRESFG9 pl, 58 yds· own 24Q2
UNMINT6 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2
FRESTD4 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2
UNMTD11 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q2
FRESEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
UNMPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q3
FRESFG14 pl, 57 yds· own 20Q3
UNMINT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3
FRESPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 44Q3
UNMFG11 pl, 65 yds· own 20Q3
FRESPUNT4 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q4
UNMDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 3Q4
FRESTD5 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q4
UNMTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
FRESFG6 pl, 28 yds· opp 41Q4
UNMDOWNS12 pl, 43 yds· own 31Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FRES up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 835 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
FRES went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. New Mexico?
Fresno State 38, New Mexico 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.