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Air Force vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Sep 29, 12:00 AM
War Memorial StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
| WYO | 7 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WYO 1245
AF 1459
Projected spread
WYO +6.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
AF
68% to win
Market spread
WYO +4
sportsbook line
Model edge
AF
2.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
32%
WYO · market 38%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WYO Elo 1245, AF Elo 1459) plus home-field advantage. That projects WYO +6.2 (32% to win) — 2.2 points of value on AF versus the market line of +4.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WYO (top)AF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WYO 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
AF2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedWYO
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.0542%
Success rate
36%1.04
Explosiveness
1.294.02
Pts / opportunity
3.0783%
Power success
62%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
0.2342%
Success rate allowed
44%1.30
Explosiveness allowed
1.2715%
Havoc rate
14%17%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- WYO pass offense (0.08 PPA) vs. AF pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge AF.
- AF pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. WYO pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge WYO.
- WYO rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. AF rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge AF.
Drive-by-drive
AF 4/9 scoring drives← own end zone →WYO 5/10 scoring drives
AFDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
WYOTD6 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1
AFPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
WYOPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q1
AFFG12 pl, 72 yds· own 17Q1
WYOPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2
AFTD9 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2
WYOPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 14Q2
AFFG9 pl, 54 yds· own 36Q2
WYOEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
WYOTD7 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
AFPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
WYOTD11 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q3
AFPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
WYOFG13 pl, 61 yds· own 33Q3
AFTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
WYOTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
AFDOWNS6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q4
WYOEND2 pl, -3 yds· opp 42Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WYO up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,586 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
WYO went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Wyoming?
Air Force 19, Wyoming 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had AF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.