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Oregon State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 12, 11:30 PM
Mackay Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORST | 7 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| NEV | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEV 1235
ORST 1609
Projected spread
NEV +12.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ORST
82% to win
Market spread
NEV +3
sportsbook line
Model edge
ORST
9.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
18%
NEV · market 41%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEV Elo 1235, ORST Elo 1609) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV +12.6 (18% to win) — 9.6 points of value on ORST versus the market line of +3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NEV (top)ORST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEV 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
ORST2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedNEV
Offense
0.16
PPA / play
0.2144%
Success rate
45%1.16
Explosiveness
1.233.87
Pts / opportunity
3.8876%
Power success
69%Defense
0.27
PPA allowed / play
0.2448%
Success rate allowed
46%1.19
Explosiveness allowed
1.2613%
Havoc rate
14%15%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- ORST pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge NEV.
- NEV rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. ORST rush defense (0.23 allowed) — edge ORST.
- ORST rush offense (0.22 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge NEV.
Drive-by-drive
ORST 7/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NEV 5/9 scoring drives
ORSTTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NEVTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ORSTDOWNS11 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q1
NEVTD13 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
ORSTFG10 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q2
NEVDOWNS11 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q2
ORSTTD5 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2
NEVEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
NEVPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3
ORSTTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3
NEVTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
ORSTINT8 pl, 38 yds· own 26Q3
NEVTD6 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3
ORSTTD8 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q4
ORSTTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
ORSTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 46Q4
NEVTD3 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
ORSTTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
NEVPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· opp 48Q4
ORSTINT8 pl, 55 yds· own 13Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ORST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,454 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
ORST went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Nevada?
Oregon State 37, Nevada 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ORST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.