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Nevada vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Oct 27, 3:59 AM
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| HAW | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
HAW 1167
NEV 1267
Projected spread
HAW +1.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
NEV
55% to win
Market spread
HAW -2
sportsbook line
Model edge
NEV
3.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
HAW · market 31%
Our model blends Elo ratings (HAW Elo 1167, NEV Elo 1267) plus home-field advantage. That projects HAW +1.6 (45% to win) — 3.6 points of value on NEV versus the market line of -2.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
HAW (top)NEV (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: HAW 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
NEV2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedHAW
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.1745%
Success rate
44%1.23
Explosiveness
1.173.88
Pts / opportunity
3.8169%
Power success
80%Defense
0.24
PPA allowed / play
0.1946%
Success rate allowed
42%1.26
Explosiveness allowed
1.1914%
Havoc rate
16%18%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- HAW rush offense (0.13 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge NEV.
- NEV pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. HAW pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge NEV.
- HAW pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge HAW.
Drive-by-drive
NEV 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →HAW 6/9 scoring drives
HAWTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NEVDOWNS9 pl, 24 yds· own 37Q1
HAWTD9 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1
NEVMISS11 pl, 59 yds· own 13Q1
HAWINT10 pl, 50 yds· own 28Q2
NEVDOWNS10 pl, 49 yds· own 14Q2
HAWFG9 pl, 53 yds· own 37Q2
NEVEND1 pl, -6 yds· own 26Q2
NEVTD2 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3
HAWPUNT6 pl, 32 yds· own 20Q3
NEVPUNT5 pl, 29 yds· own 3Q3
HAWTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
NEVDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 19Q3
HAWTD4 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q3
NEVTD14 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4
NEVFUM7 pl, 45 yds· own 45Q4
HAWFG6 pl, 55 yds· own 32Q4
NEVINT6 pl, 31 yds· own 35Q4
HAWEND3 pl, -4 yds· own 32Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
HAW up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 840 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
HAW went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Hawai'i?
Nevada 13, Hawai'i 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had NEV pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.