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Washington State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Oct 27, 2:30 AM
Snapdragon Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 29 |
| SDSU | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 26 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SDSU 1344
WSU 1608
Projected spread
SDSU +8.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WSU
73% to win
Market spread
SDSU +17
sportsbook line
Model edge
SDSU
8.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
27%
SDSU · market 16%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1344, WSU Elo 1608) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +8.2 (27% to win) — 8.8 points of value on SDSU versus the market line of +17.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SDSU (top)WSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SDSU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
WSU2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedSDSU
Offense
0.29
PPA / play
0.1248%
Success rate
37%1.35
Explosiveness
1.304.43
Pts / opportunity
3.4467%
Power success
69%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.2346%
Success rate allowed
46%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2215%
Havoc rate
13%17%
Stuff rate
12%Key matchups · Pro
- SDSU rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge WSU.
- SDSU pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge WSU.
- WSU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge WSU.
Drive-by-drive
WSU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 5/11 scoring drives
WSUTD7 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q0
SDSUPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 14Q1
WSUTD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
SDSUFG10 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q1
WSUDOWNS7 pl, 35 yds· own 35Q1
SDSUFG10 pl, 60 yds· own 30Q1
WSUUncateg9 pl, 57 yds· own 26Q2
SDSUDOWNS7 pl, 35 yds· own 23Q2
WSUDOWNS5 pl, 18 yds· own 42Q2
SDSUTD6 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2
WSUEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2
WSUPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 39Q3
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 37Q3
WSUPUNT7 pl, 38 yds· own 20Q3
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 6Q3
SDSUTD3 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q3
WSUPUNT5 pl, 4 yds· own 28Q3
SDSUTD11 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3
WSUTD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
SDSUINT8 pl, 41 yds· own 37Q4
WSUTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4
SDSUPUNT8 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q4
WSUEND7 pl, 23 yds· own 27Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,965 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
SDSU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. San Diego State?
Washington State 29, San Diego State 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.