← All games
Air Force vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 2, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ARMY | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARMY 1649
AF 1292
Projected spread
ARMY -16.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
ARMY
89% to win
Market spread
ARMY -18
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
89%
ARMY · market 88%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARMY Elo 1649, AF Elo 1292) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -16.7 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARMY (top)AF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARMY 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
AF2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedARMY
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.3242%
Success rate
51%1.04
Explosiveness
1.094.02
Pts / opportunity
4.4783%
Power success
86%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
0.1242%
Success rate allowed
43%1.30
Explosiveness allowed
1.2115%
Havoc rate
15%17%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- ARMY rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. AF rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge ARMY.
- ARMY pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. AF pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge ARMY.
- AF pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. ARMY pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge ARMY.
Drive-by-drive
AF 2/8 scoring drives← own end zone →ARMY 3/8 scoring drives
AFPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
ARMYFG11 pl, 57 yds· own 30Q1
AFPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q1
ARMYPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 46Q1
AFPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 7Q1
ARMYFG8 pl, 29 yds· opp 44Q1
AFPUNT8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q2
ARMYPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q2
AFFG11 pl, 49 yds· own 37Q2
ARMYEND6 pl, 15 yds· own 15Q2
ARMYTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
AFPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· own 24Q3
ARMYPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 26Q3
AFINT11 pl, 54 yds· own 24Q3
ARMYDOWNS9 pl, 62 yds· own 7Q4
AFTD12 pl, 48 yds· own 31Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARMY up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,137 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
ARMY went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Army?
Air Force 3, Army 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARMY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ARMY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.