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Troy vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 23, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 14 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| UL | 7 | 27 | 3 | 14 | 51 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UL 1618
TROY 1466
Projected spread
UL -8.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
UL
74% to win
Market spread
UL -7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
74%
UL · market 73%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UL Elo 1618, TROY Elo 1466) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL -8.5 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UL (top)TROY (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UL 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
TROY2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedUL
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.3044%
Success rate
45%1.24
Explosiveness
1.354.43
Pts / opportunity
4.2776%
Power success
76%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.2243%
Success rate allowed
48%1.23
Explosiveness allowed
1.0917%
Havoc rate
14%17%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- UL pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. TROY pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge UL.
- TROY pass offense (0.36 PPA) vs. UL pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge TROY.
- TROY rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UL.
Drive-by-drive
TROY 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →UL 8/13 scoring drives
TROYPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
ULTD6 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
TROYPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
ULPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 27Q1
TROYTD7 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q1
ULPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
TROYTD7 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
ULTD4 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
TROYINT2 pl, -3 yds· own 30Q2
ULTD1 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q2
TROYPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2
ULFG6 pl, 37 yds· own 42Q2
TROYINT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2
ULTD6 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2
TROYDOWNS7 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q2
ULFG6 pl, 26 yds· opp 41Q2
ULFG7 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q3
TROYTD10 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3
ULPUNT6 pl, 35 yds· own 15Q3
TROYTD13 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q3
TROYPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4
ULPUNT7 pl, 32 yds· own 20Q4
TROYDOWNS7 pl, 0 yds· own 3Q4
ULTD3 pl, 3 yds· opp 3Q4
TROYFUM5 pl, 32 yds· own 16Q4
ULEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 48Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UL up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,203 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
95%
UL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Louisiana?
Troy 30, Louisiana 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.